ST. GEORGE’S, Grenada, September 21st — Grenada’s projected overall fiscal deficit has surged to EC$534.8 million—73 percent above the original budget projection—prompting economist Patrick Antoine to warn that the country could face a difficult and potentially severe fiscal adjustment when the fiscal rules return in 2027.

The warning came sunday on the Bubb Report during a discussion of the 2026 supplementary budget, which adds roughly EC$300 million to the original EC$1.966 billion budget and pushes the projected deficit substantially above the EC$309.8 million initially forecast.

Antoine said the concern extends beyond the size of the supplementary allocation to the underlying fiscal trajectory. He estimates that, with the supplementary spending included, the primary balance could fall to about -10.8 percent of GDP, compared with the 1.5 percent of GDP primary surplus required under the fiscal framework from 2027.

“If we have to consolidate by 2027,” Antoine said, “we will be forced to consolidate in one year.” He described that as a “Herculean” task that could require stringent expenditure measures or substantially higher revenues.

Antoine also pointed to an EC$41.7 million decline in revenue and grants, a sharp increase in spending on goods and services to about EC$191.7 million, and a reduction in the current-account surplus from roughly EC$230 million to EC$217.6 million. He said these developments raise questions about economic management and fiscal discipline.

However, the panel was divided over how to interpret the numbers.

Former Finance Minister Anthony Boatswain argued that supplementary budgets are a normal feature of public financial management and warned against treating capital investment as inherently problematic. “There’s absolutely nothing wrong with the preparation and presentation of supplementary budgets,” he said, noting that unexpected developments can require governments to revise their spending plans.

Economist Laurel Bain also cautioned against directly equating the current situation with Grenada’s 2013–15 fiscal crisis. She argued that the country now has significant reserves that can provide financing space, while stressing the need for a fresh debt-sustainability assessment to determine whether the debt-to-GDP target remains achievable.

The IMF has separately identified 2027 as the year Grenada is expected to return to its 1.5 percent primary-balance rule, while warning that large investment projects and cost overruns remain fiscal risks.